2026 Open Championship Odds: Scheffler Tops the Board Despite Scottish Open Miss, Tom Kim Surges

2026 Open Championship Odds: What the Market Is Telling Us

With The Open Championship set for Royal Birkdale Golf Club in Southport, England, the betting market has spoken — and Scottie Scheffler remains the man to beat despite a rare stumble.

Scheffler Holds the Top Spot at +620

Scheffler's missed cut at the Genesis Scottish Open snapped a streak that stretched back nearly four years, yet the market has only nudged his odds out to +620 — his longest price to win a major since the 2023 Open. For context, even at that price, he sits well clear of the field, reflecting the sustained dominance he's shown throughout this season.

McIlroy Closes the Gap; Fleetwood Headlines the Next Tier

Rory McIlroy checks in as the clear second choice at +860, a meaningfully tighter gap to Scheffler than bettors might have expected heading into the week. Tommy Fleetwood comes in third at 18-1, with Matt Fitzpatrick and Jon Rahm sharing the +1850 line to round out the top five.

Tom Kim's Dramatic Odds Shift

The most striking movement belongs to Tom Kim, whose Scottish Open victory vaulted him from the 100-1 range all the way to 59-1. The win also produced one of the week's biggest betting stories: a single DraftKings bettor turned a $47,700 wager at 84-1 odds into more than $4 million on Kim in Scotland.

Strokeslab's Take

One missed cut shouldn't reset expectations for Scheffler — his season-long Strokes Gained profile remains elite, and a single poor week on a links track says less about Royal Birkdale readiness than his cumulative SG data does.