3M Open Betting Guide: Targeting Value at TPC Twin Cities' Birdie Bonanza
Overview
The PGA Tour heads to TPC Twin Cities in Minnesota for the 3M Open. At 7,451 yards on paper but playing closer to 7,200 due to corner-cutting opportunities, this course rewards aggressive play. Large greens, water on 12 of 18 holes, and a typical winning score near 20-under make this one of the season's premier birdie-fests.
Top Value Plays
Doug Ghim — Group C Winner (+315)
Despite ranking 124th in putting, Ghim sits 19th in birdies made, underscoring elite ball-striking that creates consistent scoring opportunities. His tee-to-green ranking (10th) and GIR (11th) make him the group's most complete player in a neutral-putting scenario. His recent 32-round sample shows stronger course fit than Corey Conners, the group's higher-pedigree name.
Ben Kohles — Group F Winner (+325)
Kohles ranks 1st in GIR, 4th in SG: Approach, and 6th from tee to green — a profile tailor-made for TPC Twin Cities. After two missed cuts in May, he has rattled off five consecutive top-30 finishes, including a T3 at the John Deere Classic and a Korn Ferry Tour win.
DFS Value: Jackson Suber ($8,900)
Suber has quietly transformed his season since May: six top-30s in his last eight starts, including three top-10s. His iron play and birdie-or-better rate rank inside the top 15, and his early-season struggles mask a legitimate current-form case.
Fades
Jake Knapp ($9,400): Three missed cuts in his last four starts, compounded by a reported wrist/thumb injury that threatens the speed-off-the-tee game that defines his ceiling.
Keith Mitchell ($9,500): Solid long-term data (SG: OTT top-5 in last 32 rounds) but two missed cuts in six starts signals recent volatility. Better suited for placement markets than DFS salary allocation.
Strokeslab Perspective
For a course that rewards both distance and precision, the tee-to-green efficiency metric is the key filter this week. Kohles's GIR leadership and Ghim's approach-driven birdie rate align well with Strokes Gained logic at TPC Twin Cities.
Kohles's GIR leadership and Ghim's approach-driven birdie conversion rate both align with Strokes Gained principles at this course, making them worth tracking beyond betting markets as well.