ESPN Golf: 2026 U.S. Open Expert Picks & Betting Analysis at Shinnecock Hills

2026 U.S. Open: Experts and Betting Analysis at Shinnecock Hills

The 2026 U.S. Open heads to Shinnecock Hills, where patience and precision will matter more than aggressive birdie-hunting. Defending champion J.J. Spaun will return alongside a field headlined by Scottie Scheffler, who needs this title to complete the career Grand Slam.

Expert Picks Lean Heavily Toward Scheffler

Six of nine ESPN experts picked Scheffler. The consensus reasoning: Shinnecock rewards exactly what Scheffler does best — avoiding blowups, managing the course, and grinding out results when conditions get tough. Two experts sided with McIlroy, noting his consistent major-championship form since missing the cut here in 2018.

Betting Analyst Backs Rahm, Not Scheffler

Pamela Maldonado's betting analysis diverges from the pundit majority. Her pick to win: Jon Rahm at +1050. Her argument centers on tee-to-green dominance, shot height and long-iron ability — traits that translate directly to a course where approach shots from 175+ yards are unavoidable.

On Scheffler, she passes: the course introduces enough randomness that a sixth-to-tenth finish is a real scenario. His long-iron metrics have been below average this season, a meaningful flag for this specific test.

Long shot: Jake Knapp at +600 for Top 10 — eighth off the tee, high ball flight, elite long-iron numbers. A profile built for Shinnecock.

DFS Highlights and Fades

- Plays: Rahm ($11,500), Adam Scott ($6,600), Jackson Suber ($5,600) - Fades: Morikawa ($8,500) — recent iron-play neutrality undermines his core value proposition; McIlroy ($12,200) — Rahm's precision preferred at $700 less

Strokeslab Take

The Rahm thesis aligns well with SG: Approach and tee-to-green metrics. Scheffler remains elite in SG: Total, but if his iron variance surfaces on a course with no margin for error, the gap between him and the field narrows considerably.