3M Open Preview: Five Value Picks at TPC Twin Cities Where Driving Stats Dominate

Why Driving Stats Rule the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities

The 3M Open returns to TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota — an Arnold Palmer design where water comes into play on 15 of 18 holes. At over 7,400 yards and par 71, the course rewards controlled power, not raw distance. Fast Bentgrass greens mean scoring comes down to making birdies, but getting there requires keeping the ball in play off the tee.

Historical Proof: Drivers Win Here

Past champions — Matt Wolff, Tony Finau, Cameron Champ, Jhonattan Vegas, and defending champion Kurt Kitayama — share a common thread: elite SG: Off the Tee and Total Driving numbers. Comparable courses include PGA National, TPC Deere Run, and Detroit Golf Club, all featuring driver-heavy layouts with significant water.

Five Value Picks This Week

Jackson Suber (60-1) — Ranks 11th in Total Driving and 7th in Birdie Percentage over his last 24 rounds. Contended at the Open Championship last week and has posted top-11 finishes at comparable courses. Currently 79th in FedEx Cup points, adding pressure to perform.

Emiliano Grillo (70-1) — His Minnesota résumé is outstanding: 10th, 3rd, and runner-up here. Also 14th in Total Driving and has won at Silverado (Procore Championship), another water-heavy layout.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (75-1) — Approach ranks 16th in the field and he sits 7th in SG: Par 4s. Not elite off the tee, but his iron game and short game can compensate.

Michael Brennan (85-1) — Ranks No. 1 in the field for SG: Off the Tee over the last 24 rounds. Six straight cuts made including the U.S. Open, Scottish Open, and Royal Birkdale. Already has a Tour win in his first year.

Gary Woodland (90-1) — 6th in SG: OTT and 5th in Total Driving. Won at Memorial Park earlier this season on a driver-heavy track and has four top-10s at PGA National.

Strokeslab's Take

With several players fighting to stay inside the FedEx Cup top 70, expect aggressive play this week — which could lead to volatile leaderboards and opportunities for mid-field names to contend.