ESPN Experts: 2026 Open Championship at Royal Birkdale Favors Placement Over Power

The 2026 Open Championship tees off at Royal Birkdale in Southport, England, where firm and fast conditions are expected to reward placement over pure distance. ESPN's panel of experts has named a wide range of contenders, with Rory McIlroy, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Collin Morikawa drawing the most support.

What the Experts Are Saying

The consensus leans toward players who can manage their tee shots intelligently. Bettings analyst Pamela Maldonado highlights the repositioned fairway bunkers — landing in them off the tee is essentially a penalty stroke — meaning "good drive" rate (how often a tee shot leaves a playable angle regardless of fairway or rough) becomes a key metric.

- McIlroy (+850 to win): Ranks 2nd tee-to-green in the field and is one of the best long-iron players available. Finished T-4 at Birkdale in 2017 and T-7 or better in his last three Opens. - Fitzpatrick (top-10 favorite at +166): Ranks in the top 10 for SG: Approach, around the green, and tee-to-green, while sitting 2nd in good drives — ideal for links golf that rewards smart positioning. - Morikawa: The 2021 Open Champion is 2nd in SG: Approach, 5th in fairways hit, and 7th in GIR. Conditions at Royal Birkdale mirror those he conquered at Royal St. George's. - Long shot Si Woo Kim (+4300): Ranks 20th in approach, 4th in good drives, and posted a T-9 at Royal Portrush last week. Putting remains the variable.

Course Setup and Scoring Outlook

The redesign added yardage to select holes and converted No. 14 to a par 5, while creating a demanding closing stretch. Maldonado backs the winning score OVER 267.5 (-102), noting that firm turf and weekend winds could keep scoring honest on what is now a more demanding test than its 2017 version.

Strokeslab's Take

Maldonado's focus on approach distances of 175-plus yards is data-sound: when players club down off the tee, long-iron precision from that range becomes the decisive skill. Players with strong SG: Approach performance at distance — McIlroy, Morikawa, and the underrated Kim — are the ones to watch in the data.