ESPN Golf: 2026 Open Championship at Royal Birkdale — Top 25 Contenders Analyzed

The 154th Open Championship tees off at Royal Birkdale Golf Club in Southport, England. Defending champion Scottie Scheffler and two-time Masters winner Rory McIlroy headline the field as co-favorites.

A Transformed Course

Royal Birkdale has undergone significant changes since Jordan Spieth's dramatic 2017 victory. The par-3 4th has been stretched to 219 yards, the par-3 14th converted into a 602-yard par 5, and the par-5 15th reimagined as a demanding 241-yard par 3. These alterations reward precision over raw power.

Top Contenders Through a Strokes Gained Lens

Scottie Scheffler (Favorite)

Despite a 13-start winless stretch, Scheffler has never finished outside the top 25 across five Open starts. A missed cut in the Scottish Open gave him early course access at Royal Birkdale — a potential advantage.

Matt Fitzpatrick (3rd)

Fitzpatrick's statistical profile is arguably the best fit for Royal Birkdale among the field. Leading the tour in SG: ATG (+0.592) and second in SG: APP (+0.766), the three-time 2026 PGA Tour winner could end England's Claret Jug drought stretching back to Nick Faldo in 1992.

Wyndham Clark (4th)

On a blistering two-month run that included a second U.S. Open title, Clark ranks 9th in SG: ATG (+0.401) and 25th in SG: Putting (+0.391). His tie for fourth at last year's Open suggests he's cracked the links code.

Collin Morikawa (11th)

The 2021 Champion Golfer of the Year leads the tour in SG: APP (+0.842) and ranks 7th in driving accuracy (69.4%). His iron play is elite, but his short game will need to elevate for a second Claret Jug.

Tom Kim (20th)

After a difficult 2025, Kim has rediscovered his form — finishing third at the U.S. Open and winning the Scottish Open. His runner-up at the 2023 Open reminds us this young Korean is a proven links performer.

Strokeslab's Take

The redesigned Royal Birkdale clearly punishes inaccuracy off the tee. Driving accuracy will be a critical differentiator — Fitzpatrick's trifecta of strong APP, ATG, and FIR numbers makes him the most statistically compelling pick of the week.